Tristan H. co*ckcroft
Oct 3, 2023, 05:59 PM ET
Don't stop streamin' (defenses)!
Those who remember my preseason advice to stream team defense/special teams probably know fantasy football managers can remain just as competitive by piecing the position together with in-season matchups as they can by using a draft pick on a D/ST before the final round.
Case in point: Through the season's first four weeks, the top 10 drafted D/STs averaged 8.8 fantasy points per game. The 12 defenses I recommended for Weeks 1-4 back in July averaged 8.2. A negligible difference considering the costs.
And that was more than seven weeks before the season even kicked off. Now that we've seen these teams play four games each, we should be able to more accurately choose which defenses to stream.
For example, we couldn't have foreseen Aaron Rodgers' season-ending injury on the New York Jets' fourth offensive play of the season and its devastating impact on the team's production, Puka Nacua's record-setting start and his influence on the Los Angeles Rams' offensive potency, or the Houston Texans proving surprisingly competitive behind a hot-starting rookie quarterback in C.J. Stroud and strong performance by coordinator Matt Burke's defense. And that's merely touching on three of the least-anticipated, teamwide happenings so far.
Additionally, the bye weeks begin with Week 5, and that means even fantasy managers confident in their current D/STs might be sent to the free-agent list to find one-week replacements. With all that in mind, let's update our D/ST strategy.
Opponents to exploit with D/STs
Entering Week 5, here are top eight fantasy-friendly matchups for a defense (schedule adjusted):
1. New York Giants (added 8.6 points to a D/ST's total on average): Last in points per game (11.5) and offensive EPA (-48.18), second worst in total yards per game (252.0), sacks (23) and interceptions (6, tied)
2. Chicago Bears (+7.0): Third worst in sacks (17), tied for fourth worst in interceptions (5)
3. Washington Commanders (+6.2): Allowed league-most 24 sacks
4. Cleveland Browns (+5.2): Tied for second-most turnovers (10)
5. Carolina Panthers (+3.6): Seventh-fewest points per game (15.0)
6. New England Patriots (+3.5): Second worst in offensive EPA (-39.59)
7. Atlanta Falcons (+3.4): Tied for fourth-most sacks allowed (16)
8. Denver Broncos (+3.4): Tied for ninth-most sacks allowed (11)
Other plus-matchup offenses: Las Vegas Raiders, Pittsburgh Steelers, Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints, Tennessee Titans.
Opponents to avoid with D/STs
Conversely, below are the eight least-fantasy-friendly matchups thus far. Note that both the Arizona Cardinals and Houston Texans, expected to be favorable matchups during the preseason, made the list:
1. Miami Dolphins (subtracted 6.6 points from a D/ST's total on average): Lead league in points per game (37.5), yards per game (511.0), offensive EPA (62.59) and "explosive plays" (rushes of 10-plus yards and receptions of 20-plus yards, of which they have 38)
2. Texans (-5.9): 10th in total yards per game (368.5), zero interceptions thrown
3. Cardinals (-5.6): Zero interceptions thrown, tied for sixth in times sacked (6)
4. San Francisco 49ers (-4.8): Second in total yards per game (398.0) and explosive plays (33, tied)
5. Philadelphia Eagles (-4.6): Fifth in points per game (27.3)
6. Rams (-4.0): Sixth in offensive EPA (20.98)
T7. Dallas Cowboys (-3.4): Tied for fewest turnovers (1)
T7. Detroit Lions (-3.4): Seventh in points per game (24.8)
Other bad-matchup offenses: Los Angeles Chargers, Seattle Seahawks, Indianapolis Colts, Jets, Kansas City Chiefs.
Week-by-week D/ST roadmap for Weeks 5-8
With those matchup grades in mind, let's refresh the preseason recommendations with a new batch of streaming picks for the upcoming four weeks. This will take us through the conclusion of October, after which point we'll again refresh the road map.
Remember that we're nearing -- if not at -- the stage where a hot-starting defense proves skilled enough to warrant locking in as your weekly choice, and there's a strong case to be made that the Browns (eighth in positional ADP, sixth in fantasy points thus far) and Baltimore Ravens (12th in ADP, fourth in FPTS) have earned that honor, joining arguably only the Cowboys, 49ers and Buffalo Bills.
The D/ST to lock in for Weeks 5-7: The Commanders don't have their bye until Week 14, and they face the Bears, Falcons and Giants the next three weeks. They are the only team to face as many as three of the eight-most-favorable matchups in that time, though you will almost assuredly need to replace them come Week 8 (vs. PHI).
Week 5-only picks: Besides the Commanders' league-best matchup (18.9% rostered in ESPN leagues, vs. CHI), the Lions (4.9%, vs. CAR), Dolphins (61.4%, vs. NYG) and Saints (89.9%, @NE) stand out. The Bears (0.9%, @WAS) draw a similarly favorable opponent, but are currently the league's worst-performing defense and therefore should be a desperation play only.
Avoid: The Cowboys (97.7%, @SF) are underdogs against the 49ers' hot-starting offense, which could prove bad news for the current No. 1 D/ST. And if we believe the Rams are for real, the Eagles (90.3%, @LAR) should also be avoided.
Week 6: The Minnesota Vikings (4.7%, @CHI), Falcons (3.1%, vs. WAS) and Dolphins (61.4%, vs. CAR) have each delivered strong performances when facing favorable matchups already this season, and these are among the best each defense could draw. This is one of the Dolphins' three plus matchups from Weeks 5 to 8, and the aforementioned Commanders have a plus matchup of their own (@ATL).
Avoid: While it's hard to believe that the Texans are an awful matchup for a D/ST, the numbers bear it out in a way that this -- not Week 10 -- is the week to bail on the Saints' defense (89.9% rostered, @HOU). The Jets (55.8%, vs. PHI) have another tough draw in a season full of challenging D/ST matchups.
Week 7: It's not the easiest week, as the Cowboys, Jets and Texans are among the six teams on bye, so tread very carefully with your choices and consider locking in your choice during Week 6 if you are able, in order to maximize your options. The Raiders (1.0% available, @CHI) are a dicey choice, having not yet proven a handy streamer and being weak on personnel, but they also get a "prove-it-to-us" matchup in advance of this in the Patriots during Week 6. Keep close tabs on that outcome first. The Giants (3.6%, vs. WAS) and Commanders (18.9%, @NYG) make compelling head-to-head choices, as do the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (26.7%, vs. ATL).
Avoid: The Eagles (90.3%, vs. MIA) are in the midst of a brutal stretch of five bad matchups over a nine-week stretch, and that's not even counting their Weeks 11 (@KC) and 12 (vs. BUF). The opposing Dolphins (61.4%, @PHI) should also be avoided.
Week 8: There are no byes, leaving us with a deep list of choices, from which the Chargers (7.7%, vs. CHI), Seahawks (34.0%, vs. CLE), Texans (5.2%, @CAR) and Dolphins (61.4%, vs. NE) stand out. Note that the Texans, currently tied for 12th in fantasy scoring among D/STs, come out of their bye for this game and face a remarkably favorable schedule the rest of the way (@CAR, TB, @CIN, ARI, JAX, DEN, @NYJ, @TEN, CLE, TEN, @IND). If Burke's unit steps up with two more strong games in Weeks 5 and 6 (@ATL, NO) in advance of the bye, a case can be made that the Texans will be 2023's sleeper-turned-elite D/ST.
Avoid: The Patriots (56.9%, @MIA) had a forgettable four fantasy points in these teams' Week 2 matchup in Foxborough, so imagine what might happen during the rematch in Miami. The Ravens (60.0%, @ARI) could also be a must-avoid if the Cardinals' offense continues its overperforming ways.
